Champions League: Can Guardiola Outsmart Tuchel This Time?

Manchester City vs Bayern Munich

Manchester City host FC Bayern at the Etihad on Tuesday in the Champions League tie of the round, and one which might well produce the tournament winner. 

The Sky Blues are targeting the European competition as their highest priority, while FC Bayern are aiming for a seventh title, last winning the trophy in 2020. Bayern boss Thomas Tuchel beat Pep Guardiola to lead Chelsea to the 2021 Champions League title and his recent arrival in Bavaria adds extra intrigue to this tie, as he could be the man to deprive City of their Holy Grail for a second time.

Tuchel readily talks about the influence Guardiola has had on his coaching style so there is an element of the ‘master and his apprentice’ in this game…but they are on the level now and over 180 minutes both will believe they will win. At SBOTOP odds of 1.66 to win this tie, Manchester City are clear favourites but at 2.25 FC Bayern are in no way a long shot.   

The latest Champions League betting odds say the Sky Blues are favourites at a price of 3.25 to win the European crown, with Napoli second at 4.30 and FC Bayern at 4.60, so this is the box office battle of the tournament so far. The Sky Blues made it to the quarter finals with a brutal battering of Bayern’s Bundesliga rivals Red Bull Leipzig, while the Germans outwitted Paris Saint-Germain to reach the last eight.

It doesn’t get much bigger than this! 

Talking Points

The Blue Moon is rising

A 4-1 victory away to bottom club Southampton made it nine wins on the bounce for Manchester City and they are now playing the best football of their campaign. The Sky Blues have won their last four games in scintillating style, scoring 21 goals and conceding two, including that 7-0 annihilation of Leipzig.    

Erling Braut Haaland returned to action from a groin strain to score his 30^th goal of the Premier League season in the win over the Saints and he has plundered ten goals from six games in this competition. Any thoughts that the arrival of Haaland has unbalanced the Sky Blues are starting to disappear now; sometimes these things take time. And another arrival, Argentine striker Julian Alvarez has had to be patient, but he has always performed when given the chance and he bagged his seventh goal for City on Sunday.

He has so much talent at his disposal but one player Guardiola expects to make some big Champions League 2023 highlights is attacking midfielder Jack Grealish. The former Aston Villa man seemed a little weighed down by his £100m price tag last term but now City have the player they paid so much for: quick-footed, outrageously skilful and with the sprinkling of magic dust that Sky Blues fans so love. With Kevin De Bruyne hitting top form again and the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden and Bernard Silva in the running this is one heck of an attacking unit.       

Bayern can win on the wing

So how can Bayern, or anyone for that matter, combat the Sky Blues? Well, they need to be at their best and hope that City have an off day, but Tuchel will have noticed that Guardiola’s 3-2-4-1 line-up can be exposed on the wing during quick transitions. While Manchester City totally dominated Southampton for much of their match, the Saints winger Kamaldeen Sulemana had plenty of success on both flanks later in the game and Bayern’s wide men, Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala could all pose a threat in the same way.

If they can, then forwards Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Thomas Muller may get enough service to puncture the Sky Blues defence… but they will have to be ruthless.

Matthijs de Ligt gave new boss Thomas Tuchel his second win at the club when he smashed home a beauty from distance to earn the Bundesliga leaders a 1-0 win away to Freiburg. But the boss will expect his centre back to have a busy time in his own half, particularly in this first tie.  

History

In terms of head to heads there is nothing to choose between these two giants, each winning five of their ten previous meetings, the Sky Blues winning a pre-season friendly to draw level.     

In terms of recent form City are stronger, unbeaten in 12 and unbeaten is 12 at the Etihad, and they are on that nine game winning streak, while Die Bayern have won seven and lost two over that period.

Betting Tip

At a price of 1.73 to win this first leg the Sky Blues really need to head to Bavaria in control of the tie, while Bayern would be happy with a draw at odds of 3.59; an ecstatic if they can nudge ahead at 3.68. It’s going to be a fantastic tie; which I think will lean towards Manchester.

 

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