EFL Cup: What Will Familiarity Breed as Toon and Chelsea Renew Acquaintances?

Newcastle United vs Chelsea

Familiarity can breed contempt but, as far as this EFL Cup tie is concerned, it will probably spark changes galore.

Certainly, the teams will have a different look and feel compared to their Premier League meeting on Sunday afternoon.

In a heavily congested schedule, Chelsea are juggling games aplenty at home and abroad and, with a squad around the 40-player mark, manager Enzo Maresca is expected to ring the changes.

Newcastle have no such issues after missing out on qualification for Europe this term by the narrowest of margins (to Chelsea).

So, as their quest for a long-awaited trophy continues, I expect home boss Eddie Howe to select a much stronger starting XI than his counterpart.

 

Talking Points

Chelsea are dangerous and have scored in their last 13 matches in all competitions, including 19 in their last seven Stamford Bridge fixtures.

With young player of the year Cole Palmer in the ranks, he has scored 20 goals in his last 24 appearances, they will always be a threat.

They also have Nicolas Jackson, a player I thought as more of a squad man than first choice but someone who, so far this season, has embraced the challenge of being a regular starter. He is fast, strong, unselfish and awkward and his hold-up play is underrated.

In contrast, Newcastle have not won in the Premier League since beating Wolves in mid-September, drawing two and losing three of their last five games.

Scoring has also been a particular concern during that run, with Alexander Isak’s goal on Sunday their first in open play in more than seven hours of football.

I suspect they will be more clinical in midweek.

They crave any form of success on Tyneside and this trophy, realistically, provides them with their best opportunity – two seasons after Eddie Howe led them to the brink of a first major competition win since 1955.

Howe professed himself happy with most of their performance at Stamford Bridge when better decision-making from Isak might have brought a draw.

There was no denying though that the Magpies look blunt and, as they go in search of EFL Cup 2024 highlights, will certainly be hoping Anthony Gordon’s groin injury, which ruled him out at the weekend, is of no longer-term consequence.

 

History

Traditionally this had been a very closely matched clash – that was until 20 years ago when the Roman Abramovich era rolled into west London.

Chelsea spent bigger than anyone and went in a direction which Newcastle could only dream about, until they were taken over in late 2021 that is.

Overall, Chelsea have 81 victories to Newcastle’s 56 triumphs with a further 40 draws.

All three meetings last season went the way of the home team.

In this fixture, Chelsea edged out the Geordies in a five-goal thriller as Jackson, Cole Palmer and Mudryk scored the goals.

Isak and Jacob Murphy replied for Eddie Howe’s men.

On Tyneside it was more one way as Newcastle ran out 4-1 winners last November when Isak, Jamaal Lascelles, Joelinton and Gordon were the goal-getters.

Raheem Sterling was on target for the visitors.

Chelsea also won with home advantage in the League Cup fifth round last December.

They triumphed in a penalty shoot-out after a 1-1 draw which Mudryk forced with a last-minute equaliser at Stamford Bridge to cancel out Callum Wilson’s opener.

Of course, Chelsea also edged the Premier League contest on Sunday afternoon with goals from Jackson and Palmer, either side of an Isak equaliser.

The very first meeting between these sides came in Division One in September 1907 when Ronald Orr scored the only goal of the contest in favour of the home side at St James’ Park.

They met again in west London nine days later when Chelsea turned the tables, courtesy of Jimmy Windridge and Billy Bridgeman goals.

 

Betting Tip

This game may only come three days after Chelsea edged the league contest, but the SBOTOP EFL Cup 2024 betting odds back the Geordies on home soil.

They can be backed 1X2 @ 2.37 and Asian Handicap -0.25 @ 2.19. Chelsea are on offer 1X2 @ 2.52 and Asian Handicap 0.00 @ 2.00.

The draw is available @ 3.29 (although if level after 90 minutes, the contest will go to a penalty shootout, just like their fifth-round encounter) last season.

I can’t see this being goalless so am looking at Total Goals 2-3 @ 1.98. 4-6 @ 2.67 and Over 3.00 @ 2.07, as opposed to Total Goals 0-1 which is priced at an extremely attractive 3.63.

Another 2-1 Chelsea success will pay out @ 9.20 with Correct Score, while another 1-1 cup tie is an option @ 6.30.

I do think it will be mighty close and I am opting for a home win.

   

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