Premier League Gunners Need to Keep Going

Newcastle United vs Arsenal

Saturday lunchtime in the Premier League provides the big match of the weekend and one of big importance for both clubs.

I get the impression referee John Brooks may well have his hands full in what will be an intense and, possibly, fractious encounter.

It’s Newcastle versus Arsenal – a match which has delivered Premier League 2024 highlights and narratives for three decades.

 

Talking Points 

Let’s start with Arsenal, in the middle of a period of six away games out of seven.

They have already shown this term – most notably a 2-2 draw at champions Manchester City (a contest in which they played the entire second half with 10 men) – that they have a character and resoluteness to match their talent.

Now, as key players return from injury, they need to dig deep more than ever to keep in touch at the top.

With captain Martin Odegaard (out for two months) scheduled to return to training this week, and concerns over Jurrien Timber and Gabriel not as serious as first feared, there is optimism, although the loss of Riccardo Calafori, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Bukayo Saka have weakened them at a key time.

Writing before the midweek League Cup tie, I was surprised to learn that one area where Newcastle have been lacking is in front of goal.

Alexander Isak’s goal against Chelsea on Sunday was their first in open play in more than seven hours of football.

In Isak, Callum Wilson, and Anthony Gordon, manager Eddie Howe has a trio of attacking talent, complemented by a creative midfield, yet the Magpies have looked blunt at times.

They will also be hoping Gordon’s groin injury, which ruled him out at the weekend, is of no longer-term consequence as they bid to requalify for Europe after missing out last term.

 

History

What a rich history these two clubs have, dating back to their first ever meeting in 1893. 

Traditionally, Arsenal have the edge with 85 wins to the Toon’s 69 and a further 39 draws.  However, in recent years, it has been one-sided as Arsenal have actually won 20 of their last 23 meetings. 

They lost out 1-0 in the North East last season in what was a highly controversial fashion to put it mildly. 

On that occasion, Gordon’s controversial second-half winner gave the hosts victory in a feisty encounter, but only after the video assistant referee had checked whether the ball had gone out of play if there’d been a possible foul and, finally, for offside before Newcastle were finally allowed to celebrate.

Referee Stuart Attwell awarded the goal, and then the VAR checks began. Just over four minutes of them. 

First, there was a check to see if former Gunner Joe Willock had kept the ball in play. In a check that lasted 33 seconds, the VAR decided there was no conclusive evidence the ball was out of play. 

There was then a check to see if Joelinton had fouled his fellow Brazilian Gabriel to reach the ball first. This one lasted 50 seconds and it was deemed there was not sufficient contact to award a foul – highly dubious. 

And then the final question. Was Gordon offside when Joelinton played the ball? Exactly 90 seconds later the decision was made – there was no conclusive evidence of offside. They could not find an available camera angle for the VAR to draw the line. 

So, the goal stood.

Newcastle have only scored in three of their past 11 meetings with the Gunners. 

In February, Arsenal ran out 4-1 winners in North London, courtesy of an own goal, Kai Havertz, Saka, and Jakub Kiwior. Willock netted the consolation for the visitors. 

 

Betting Tip

Arsenal may be injury hit but the SBOTOP Premier League 2024 betting odds make them clear favourites against Newcastle. 

While the Gunners can be backed 1X2 @ 2.02 and Asian Handicap -0.50, also @ 2.02, the hosts are on offer 1X2 @ 3.41 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.25. 

A repeat of their last meeting on Tyneside – a controversial one just over a year ago – will pay out @ 11.50 with Correct Score 1-0. 

These sides don’t do goalless draws too often, though there was one at the Emirates two seasons ago, and so I am going to avoid the Total Goals 0-1 option which is priced @ 3.15. 

Instead, I have considered Total Goals 2-3 @ 1.93, 4-6 @ 2.99 and Over 2.75 goals @ 2.07. 

I am, however, going to opt for a draw, a result which would do little to help either side.

   

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