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Serie A: A Sunday Night Showdown With a Title Race Impact

AC Milan vs AS Roma

We are not quite at the halfway stage of the 2022-23 Serie A season.

However, make no mistake, if sixth placed Roma lose at the San Siro on Sunday evening their faint title aspirations will be over for another year.

That probably shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given they have not finished above third in any of the past five seasons.

That position, though, is not considered good enough by either manager Jose Mourinho or club bosses who have backed him since he returned to Rome 18 months ago.

Now let’s be clear, they have undoubtedly improved during that time.

The signings of the likes of Tammy Abraham and goalkeeper Rui Patricio from the English Premier League certainly helped as Roma lifted the inaugural Europa Conference League last term.

Yet, with respect, that is very much a third-tier trophy at the top end of European football and, with players such as Paulo Dybala, Andrea Belottti and Georginio Wijnaldum (who has encountered misfortune with injury) now on board, more is expected of the club from the capital which finished 23 points behind the table-toppers last season.

So, as they head to defending champions AC Milan for a contest which has produced many Serie A highlights over the years, this will be a good test of the direction in which they are heading.


Talking Points

Paulo Dybala has scored 5 goals in 10 Serie A appearances for AS Roma
Jose Mourinho’s AS Roma could be without Paulo Dybala for the trip to face Milan

Roma should be able to call upon the services of Nicolo Zaniolo and Dybala who came off during the win against Bologna on Wednesday, sparking fears that Mourinho could be without two of his main forwards for the trip to the San Siro.

If they don’t make it, it could mean Abraham returns to the starting XI as a lone striker.

Although Roma’s defence is tight as you would expect under the stewardship of Mourinho, the Giallorossi has been unable to break into the top four this season and, defeat on Sunday, will make that their only realistic league aim.

Milan, however, have their sights set higher and an eye on the title they won in such dramatic fashion last May.

In fact, with leaders Napoli losing for the first time in the league this season on Wednesday night, Milan fans will still be dreaming of back-to-back Scudetti, a feat they last achieved in 1994.

Manager Stefano Pioli has an ever-growing injury list but should be able to field the same starting line-up that faced Salernitana in midweek.

That was when they managed to close the gap at the top to five points when Sandro Tonali was the hero and their city rivals and neighbours Inter beat the men from Naples.

My main concern for the hosts is in attack where there is no shortage of talent but, with Olivier Giroud in his late 30s, Zlatan Ibrahimovic now 41 and both Ante Rebic and Divock Origi injury-prone, they may not have the firepower across the whole campaign.

On saying that, they did rather well last season!

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History

Milan have traditionally had the upper hand in this heavyweight battle.

They have won 83 of their encounters, – I recalled one just as football resumed in the wake of the Covid pandemic in 2020 – Roma have enjoyed 48 victories and there have been a further 55 draws.

That included a league double last season as Milan won 2-1 in Rome thanks to the evergreen Ibrahimovic and a Franck Kessie penalty with Stephan El Shaarawy pulling one back in stoppage time.

Milan were also 3-1 home winners last January – virtually a year to the day in fact – when a Giroud penalty and a Junior Messias goal put them in the ascendancy before Abraham reduced the deficit.

It wasn’t until late on that Rafael Leao made the game safe

It was in October 2017 when Roma last beat Milan on their own turf as two goals in five second half minutes from Edin Dzeko and Alessandro Florenzi sealed a 2-0 win.


Betting Tip

The SBOTOP Serie A betting odds give Milan more than an edge, both 1X2 @ 1.89 and Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 2.17.

Roma are adrift of that 1X2 @ 4.20 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.42.

The draw is on offer @ 3.30.

A repeat of the corresponding fixture from last term – Correct Score 3-1 – will pay out @ 15.00

Goal options include over 2.75 @ 2.29, total goal 0-1 @ 2.98, 2-3 @ 1.90 and 4-6 @ 4.00.

I really do think this will be close and it’s not known if the absence from the sidelines of Roma boss Jose Mourinho will prove crucial.

A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR (⭐) BETS ARE WORTH:

⭐⭐⭐= €20 (HIGHLY CONFIDENT)

⭐⭐= €10 (CONFIDENT))

⭐= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.

 

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