UEFA Nations League: Can Poland Stop the Oranje March? 

The UEFA Nations League comes to Warsaw this week as Group A4 leaders the Netherlands arrive to take on Poland.  

The Oranje are clear at the top of their Group and the latest UEFA Nations League 2022 betting odds have them as hot favourites to win it at a price of 1.25, with Belgium at 3.75 and Poland at an SBOTOP price of 281.00.

With just four points, Czeslaw Michniewicz’s side is six behind their visitors and three behind the Red Devils…so I’m not tempted by that price!    

But this will be no walkover for Louis Van Gaal’s Dutch masters. The two teams met in June and played out a 2-2 draw. But while the Netherlands come into this rematch on the back of a 3-2 win over Wales, Poland suffered a home defeat to Belgium.  

Talking Points

Lewi to lead Poland from the front

Robert Lewandowski is one of the most prolific strikers in European football history and Poland’s talisman, and he is the man who can fire Poland to victory if the stars are aligned in Warsaw on Thursday.

Following his transfer from FC Bayern, Lewandowski is loving life at Barcelona and, unsurprisingly, he leads the race for the La Liga Golden Boot with eight goals from his first six league games with the Catalans. 

With 76 goals in 132 internationals, Lewi has been prolific for his country too, but his goals haven’t always come in the big tournament games and Poland have struggled to make inroads in their World Cup and European campaigns.

Lewi can’t do it all on his own and he will have Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik or Salernitana hitman Krzysztof Piatek alongside him. But the next biggest goal threat will come from the support of Napoli midfield man Piotr Zielinski. At 28 years of age, the cultured operator is coming into the peak period of his career and he has already made three assists in this campaign.

Leeds star Mateusz Klich will also be pushing for a start in midfield, while Juventus stopper Wojciech Szczesny in goal, and Aston Villa’s Jan Bednarek in the heart of defence are likely to have busy evenings against the ambitious Dutch.   

Resurgent Netherlands are a force again

After missing out on the 2018 World Cup finals, the Netherlands have been rebuilding with some success. The Oranje’s UEFA Nations League 2022 results have been as good as expected and while they may have been disappointed not to beat the Poles on home soil; a 4-1 win over Belgium in their opener certainly made up for that. 

Louis Van Gaal is putting together a team which is not exactly ‘total football’ but they have quality running through the group from back to front. With captain Virgil Van Dijk alongside FC Bayern’s Matthijs De Ligt at the heart of defence, Lewandowski will come up against one of the best centre-back pairs in world football.      

Midfield ace Frenkie de Jong had the strangest of summers, seemingly unwanted by his club Barcelona but in a dispute over owed wages, he spent most of the close season wondering where he would end up, with Manchester United the most likely destination.   

But he stayed in Catalonia and has been a mainstay in Xavi’s side as they push Real Madrid at the top of the table. The 25-year-old has 44 caps but only one goal for his country and Van Gaal will be keen to see more from the resettled star. He often operates as a defensive midfielder but his has the skill and engine to work box-to-box and support the front men.

Fellow midfielder Teun Koopmeiners has impressed for Atalanta this season and is on a run of scoring form in Serie A with four goals for La Dea already, and he might start in an advanced role, while up front Barcelona’s Memphis Depay will lead the attack. The Barca man has three goals in the competition and was on target in the Blaugrana’s recent 3-0 win over Elche, a game in which Lewandowski bagged a brace.

Ajax striker Steven Bergwijn will be pushing for a start too, but for an option with more height Van Gaal has Burnley’s striker Wout Weghorst, currently on loan at Turkish club Besiktas. The 6ft 6in striker scored the winner when the Netherlands beat Wales in June.

History

These two teams have met ten times, since 1975, with the Netherlands winning five to Poland’s two and there have been three draws.

The last of those stalemates came in June when the Oranje recovered from a two-goal deficit to win a point. Goals from Matty Cash and Zielinksi put the Poles in charge before Davy Klaassen and Denzel Dumfries hit back with two goals in three minutes.    

Poland’s last home win against the Oranje was in 1979 and the Netherlands are unbeaten in 13 and in six games on the road. 

Betting Tip

Poland are available at 3.20 and the draw is at 3.26, but recent form and the depth of the Oranje’s squad is very much in the visitors’ favour.

Of course Lewandowski is a constant threat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue his club form on the international stage. But I expect the Netherlands to have too much and, for an alternative bet, a correct score line of 2-1 to the Dutch is priced at 7.14.   

 

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